The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | September 19 – 21, 2025
Week 38 | September 19 – 21, 2025
1. Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle
Sony | Week 2
Weekend Range: $23M – $33M
Pros
Sony and Crunchyroll’s English dub release of Toho’s monster anime hit Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle earned $70.6M (up from $70M flat Sunday estimates) in its debut frame, enough to make it the biggest Anime debut of all-time on top of being Sony’s biggest grosser of the year. Our forecast panel is expecting an over -50% drop, but with enough tailwind to keep it at the top. With currently $81M and counting, the film is only a day or so away from crossing Pokémon: The First Movie‘s $85.7M to become the #1 domestic anime title. The worldwide total stands at $467.47M, just below Fantastic Four ($518.9M) as the #10 global grosser of 2025, and should pass the $500M threshold by Sunday.
Cons
A typical anime title usually suffers a steep drop in frame 2, although Infinity Castle is not a typical anime title. For example, February 2024’s domestic release of Demon Slayer: To the Hashira Training opened at #2 with $11.5M, then posted a deathly -82% drop in frame 2 with only $2M at #7. Similarly, this year’s March re-release of the Studio Ghibli classic Princess Mononoke had a front-loaded $3.88M opening then fell -83% the next weekend with only $675K. Still, there’s no underestimating the momentum an unprecedented opening like this brings, especially alongside positive word-of-mouth.
2. Him
Universal Pictures | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – $20M
Pros
Based on a Black List-certified spec script, Universal and Monkeypaw Productions’ Him is that rare combination of sports—in this case football—and horror. Lead Marlon Wayans is no stranger to genre titles after the Scary Movie franchise, while the hunk playing his young protege is Tyriq Withers, who earned some horror cred with this summer’s I Know What You Did Last Summer reprise. Director Justin Tipping has done a lot of work for the small screen, and his 2016 debut Kicks earned studio attention from the likes of Marvel and others. Having genre heavy hitter Jordan Peele shepherding Him to the big screen gives the movie a creative boost, if not something to hang the marketing on.
Cons
Him would have likely finished at #1, especially with the hype train for the horror genre lately, but we think it will top out at $20M. There are almost zero qualified reactions out there a day before Thursday previews, which is never a good sign. Also, having Jordan Peele shepherd Dev Patel’s critically acclaimed action film Monkey Man did not move the needle ($25.1M domestic). Meanwhile, the Margot Robbie/Colin Farrell romantic fantasy A Big Bold Beautiful Journey is tracking at the high single digits, hence not expected to sneak into the podium.
3. The Conjuring: Last Rites
Warner Bros./New Line | Week 3
Weekend Range: $12M – $15M
Pros
WB’s The Conjuring: Last Rites earned $25.6M in its second frame, with the current domestic total at $134.97M—just a hair shy of the 2013 Conjuring‘s $137.4M to become the top domestic earner in the franchise. With $337M globally, we expect Last Rites to take The Nun‘s $366M lifetime by or before Sunday to become the biggest Conjuring movie ever.
Cons
That -69% drop in frame 2 was a harsh one, and there’s no doubting that the anime stole this movie’s thunder, unlike the studio’s previous horror hit Weapons which enjoyed three frames in the top spot. While the pacing is off for a movie that opened as gloriously as this one did, Last Rites is still poised to be the biggest movie in the Conjuring Universe, and will likely usher in a whole new phase of films and TV based around the paranormal concept.
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