The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | February 7 – 9, 2025
Week 6 | February 7 – 9, 2025
1. Dog Man
Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Animation | Week 2
Weekend Range: $16M – $20M
Showtime Market Share: 16%
Pros
- Frame 6 of any year is always dog days for the box office given the absence of football fans from theaters. The first “post-COVID” Super Bowl frame was 2022 when Kenneth Branagh’s Death on the Nile took $12.8M in the top spot for an overall $53.8M weekend, making it the third-lowest weekend of quarter 1 for the year. Super Bowl weekend marked the following two years’ worst first quarter frame, with Magic Mike’s Last Dance cratering at $8.3M in 2023 for a $52.6M weekend. Last year was disastrous as Argylle‘s second time in the top spot earned a meager $6.2M for an overall $37M box office (nearly -30% drop from 2023). Driven by the family-friendly success of Dog Man ($36M debut), we expect this year’s Top 3 alone to surpass 2024’s Frame 6 with potentially the best Super Bowl weekend of the post-pandemic era.
Cons
- We’re looking at anywhere from a -45% to -55% drop in Frame 2 for Dog Man, which—considering its reported $40M budget—shouldn’t be too steep to keep the film from eventually passing the century mark into profitability. Still, don’t expect Moana 2-style box office fireworks from this animated title, as its cartoony style and juvenile humor will keep it from too much crossover adult success. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie fell -49% during its second frame in 2017 for a $12.1M take. Dog Man‘s poor performance in 30 international markets ($4.59M) means it will have to rely on North American dollars, especially with many other major territories not opening until April… giving piracy a chance to take a bite out of overseas earnings.
2. Love Hurts
Universal Pictures | NEW
Weekend Range: $8M – $12M
Showtime Market Share: 12%
Pros
- Former The Goonies child star Ke Huy Quan had one of the most electrified comebacks in Hollywood history, taking the Best Supporting Actor Oscar for his performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once. Since then he’s parlayed that success into parts in two Disney series (American Born Chinese, Loki) and a role in The Russo Bros.’ The Electric State later this year. Love Hurts is his chance to break out as a leading man at age 53, with support from fellow Academy Award winner Ariana DeBose. An unusually short runtime (83mins) means more showings per-day for theaters to maximize its initial earnings. While Love Hurts and Heart Eyes are pacing to open at a similar level to one another, we currently have Love Hurts finishing the weekend in second place thanks to a higher number of available showtimes.
Cons
- Although there are no early critical reactions yet, the film is outpacing Heart Eyes in showtimes, but word of mouth will be key. Ke Huy Quan is a trained martial artist, and the film has company 87North Productions of John Wick fame behind it, so you know the fights will be good. However, said company’s recent efforts like Violent Night and The Fall Guy haven’t worked financially. Love Hurts is an action-comedy blend with a first-time director in Jonathan Eusebio plus an untested lead which equals many question marks.
3. Heart Eyes
Sony Pictures | NEW
Weekend Range: $8M – $12M
Showtime Market Share: 11%
Pros
- A Valentine’s Day-themed slasher film, Heart Eyes was a Spyglass production picked up for North American distribution by Sony. Many recent genre entries have had the horror genre itself as the biggest draw for audiences, so if the horror crowd shows up Heart Eyes has a wicked prayer of finishing at #2. Right now the movie has an exceptional 91% on Rotten Tomatoes, but similar critical kudos didn’t seem to help Presence or Companion break out recently.
Cons
- Unfortunately when it comes to horror, Heart Eyes is not the only game in town. Competition with Companion plus the last lingering threads of Wolf Man‘s theatrical play (it arrived on PVOD Tuesday) might affect that. Realistically, we expect it to finish in the lower end of that range. An actual Valentine’s Day weekend release unencumbered by football would have been more ideal for this concept, but Sony wisely moved it up a week ahead of Marvel’s Captain America: Brave New World and two weeks away from hotly anticipated horror comedy The Monkey.
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