The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | August 1 – 3, 2025
Week 31 | August 1 – 3, 2025
1. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Disney/Marvel Studios | Wk 2
Weekend Range: $45M – $55M
Showtime Marketshare: 22%
Pros
- Marvel Studios could breathe a little easier after The Fantastic Four: First Steps opened to great box office ($117.6M) and strong reviews and audience feedback. This should help it carry through in the coming weeks with no major August competition standing in its way. This movie is the stepping stone to next year’s Avengers: Doomsday, and Marvel wants good will going into that. They got it with this movie.
Cons
- This is less of a problem with Fantastic Four and more about the state of summer ’25: There have been too many gap frames absent of major new tentpoles, with the box office ultimately supported by holdovers and smaller debuts ala this coming weekend. During the first August frame of 2019 Universal was rolling out Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw, while Frame 31 in 2016 had the DC blockbuster Suicide Squad debut. It’s not even a post-COVID thing, since 2021’s Frame 31 opened Jungle Cruise and in 2022 Sony launched Bullet Train. Early August should not be the dog days of summer at the multiplex considering schools are still out and crowds are looking to spend time in an air conditioned theater with big releases. While Marvel Studios may be formidable they’re not invulnerable, as Captain America and Thunderbolts proved earlier this year… so why were studios too gun shy to drop some big budget spectacle with major stars in this slot?
2. The Naked Gun
Paramount Pictures | NEW
Weekend Range: $22M – $28M
Showtime Marketshare: 13%
Pros
- This week sees a toss up for second place, but we think The Naked Gun can pull off the head-to-head against Bad Guys 2. While the original Leslie Nielsen trilogy—$216M total for all three—is a distant memory (itself a revival of a failed TV cop spoof show), those gag-a-second films still hold a special place in the hearts of boomers and gen-Xers. Early reactions out of the premiere give big kudos to new leads Liam Neeson and Pamela Anderson, and the trailers have been well received. Thursday preview screenings start at 7pm, with many locations holding fan events with free poster giveaways to build momentum. Best case scenario for Naked Gun is a performance similar to Paramount’s 2022 comedy The Lost City ($30.45M debut/$105.3M domestic total), but we don’t think it will be able to engage female audiences as effectively. If it gets anywhere close to those figures it will be off the strength of word-of-mouth, so Frame 2 should tell the tale.
Cons
- In terms of revivals, this summer gave us the disappointing Karate Kid: Legends ($52.5M) as well as the DOA I Know What You Did Last Summer ($23.55M). In both cases it had been well over a decade since the last theatrical installment in those franchises, so the fact that Paramount is banking on the Naked Gun namesake when Naked Gun 33 1/3: The Final Insult came out in 1994 is questionable.
3. The Bad Guys 2
Universal/DreamWorks | NEW
Weekend Range: $22M – $28M
Showtime Marketshare: 15%
Pros
- At best DreamWorks’ The Bad Guys 2 is hoping to replicate the success of last year’s lower-budget/bigger rewards sequel Kung Fu Panda 4 ($193.59M domestic total), with the so-bad-they’re-good animals likely to best the first movie’s 2022 opening ($23.95M). While we’re giving Naked Gun the edge this frame, we do expect Bad Guys 2 will overtake it when it comes to the domestic total, as is the power of a late-summer kiddie flick. The animated film also has a screen count advantage over Naked Gun (roughly 3700 vs 3300). Unlike the summer’s previous animated family film Smurfs, early reviews for the new Bad Guys are shaping up mostly positive.
Cons
- The original Bad Guys earned $97.45M domestic and $250.8M globally back in 2022, putting it in the same punching weight as this year’s January diversion Dog Man ($97.9M). That’s not even in the Top 30 earners for DreamWorks Animation, but the studio has been keeping costs (hence, expectations) down lately. Tapping into the anti-hero aspect of these characters makes it a contender to perhaps become DreamWorks’ own Despicable Me-type franchise… assuming this second one sticks the landing and builds its audience like that Universal/Illumination brand.
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