The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | May 30 – June 1, 2025
Week 22 | May 30 – June 1, 2025
1. Lilo & Stitch
Walt Disney Pictures | Week 2
Weekend Range: $55M – $65M
Showtime Marketshare: 29%
Pros
- Exhibitors are still basking in the afterglow of the biggest Memorial Day weekend ever powered by Disney’s Lilo & Stitch redo, which brought in $146M for the 3-Day and a Top Gun-smashing $182.6M record 4-Day. Our panel is predicting a drop over -50% this go-round, but the pull for this one is still mighty, especially since nearly half of US schools will be dismissed. Global tally stands at $361.1M and will crack half-a-billion handily before Sunday. The domestic total as of now is actually ahead of Inside Out 2 at this point ($176.6M), although that one didn’t have a holiday Monday. If you’re still wondering where all the Lilo & Stitch fever came from, what was once regarded as a second-tier catalogue title (along with associated content/sequel/animated series) accounted for 546 million hours of eyeball time on Disney+, equal to a marquee IP like The Little Mermaid.
Cons
- There’s very little downside to Disney’s marketing win on Lilo & Stitch, which not only translated to a big box office but also a huge multi-billion-dollar merchandising blitz that was already in full swing on opening day. The trouble here is an overall drought of winning children’s titles at the multiplex, which we’ve been feeling since last year when Wonka and Migration played well past their expiration date due to demand. Much of kids content has pivoted to streaming, even though 6 out of 10 of last year’s top worldwide earners were children’s films. Parents want to take their kids to the movies, period. As reported by The Wall Street Journal this week, both Lilo & Stitch and Moana 2 were originally eyed for streaming. Hopefully, these pivots back to theatrical releases will mean more variety during future summer months. We still have How to Train Your Dragon, Elio, The Bad Guys 2, and Smurfs through August, but there’s room for a lot more.
2. Karate Kid: Legends
Sony Pictures | NEW
Weekend Range: $25M – $35M
Showtime Marketshare: 15%
Pros
- Who would have thought that fellow The Outsiders cast members would still be duking it out at the box office four decades later? Granted, a Tom Cruise/Ralph Macchio battle may not seem fair, yet our panel gives Karate Kid: Legends the edge over Mission: Impossible for the #2 spot going into this frame. A tight race between two storied franchises, yes, but the massive streaming following of Macchio’s Karate Kid spin-off series Cobra Kai combined with that Jackie Chan reboot energy makes Legends feels more Zoomer-friendly than the older-skewing M:I. Critics are roughing the movie up at a current 53% on RT, though early social reactions leaned more mixed/positive. This one is definitely for the fans, both old and new, but will it satisfy any trying to please all?
Cons
- Ralph Macchio returning to his iconic role of Daniel LaRusso may have been more of an event if he hadn’t just spent seven years reprising the Karate Kid character on TV’s Cobra Kai. Meanwhile, Jackie Chan is still a global icon… albeit one who hasn’t had a major live-action stateside hit since he last played Mr. Han in 2010’s The Karate Kid ($176.59M domestic/$351.77M WW). Is this savvy synergy to connect the reboot with original recipe? Said reboot’s lukewarm audience reaction didn’t seem to warrant a sequel until Cobra Kai made it viable again. However, let’s not forget the original film series had a short blaze of glory with the initial 1984 classic ($90.8M), peaked with Part II ($115.1M), collapsed with Part III ($38.79M), then threw dirt on the body with cynical recast The Next Karate Kid ($8.75M). It will be a test of Sony marketing if they can truly squeeze nostalgia-tinged blood from a stone the way they did with Ghostbusters recently.
3. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Paramount Pictures | Week 2
Weekend Range: $25M – $32M
Showtime Marketshare: 18%
Pros
- Tom Cruise rode that biplane to a franchise-best $64M 3-Day opening ($1M over Sunday estimates), and over $80M racked up so far on the domestic front. With big IMAX numbers and positive audience reactions to some old-time Hollywood spectacle, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning is a major summer boost for theaters no matter how the profit margins ultimately play out. This is a movie built to serve a global audience, which it will continue to do beautifully well into the sunny season.
Cons
- Karate Kid Legends just might sweep the leg on the final Mission for second place this weekend, but we’re expecting a close race. The film’s running time, which pushes three hours, doesn’t help its showtime market share, which is the primary reason why we have it finishing third in its sophomore frame.
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