The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | May 23 – 25, 2025
Week 21 | May 23 – 25, 2025
1. Lilo & Stitch
Walt Disney Pictures | NEW
3-Day Weekend Range: $160M – $185M
4-Day Holiday Weekend Range: $185M – $230M
Pros
- After a moribund 2024 Memorial Day weekend where all titles combined to earn $132.27M over the 4-Day frame, we’re expecting a 2025 Memorial Day to beat 2013’s $314M. Our forecasting panel is currently tracking $300M+ for the 3-day frame and a $350M+ 4-day holiday frame across the entire Top Ten, making it the highest grossing Memorial Day on record. Leading the way will be Disney’s live-action redo of their 2002 animated classic, Lilo & Stitch, poised for a massive debut in the $160 – $185M range for the 3-day and $185 – $230M for the 4-day. That big swing from our four-day forecast reflects how hard it’s been for our panel to cap the upside on this. We’ll be referring to it as a $185M+ 4-day forecast, with the majority of our panel predicting a four-day debut over $200M. Considering massive pre-sales, it’s anyone’s guess where it goes at a national level.
- It will also be interesting to see whether the biggest age demo comes from children or nostalgic Gen Z’s looking to relive a childhood favorite. Lilo & Stitch is evergreen because the appeal is innate in the cute characters and Hawaiian locale, extending beyond simple IP recognition. With the summer movie season in full swing there’s a hunger for kiddie content, especially since Minecraft debuted over a month ago. The stage will be clear for Stitch to run rampant in that department until Universal’s How to Train Your Dragon flies in on June 13.
Cons
- The original Lilo & Stitch only took in a modest $145.77M domestically and $245.79M globally in 2002, but has built its name via merchandising, numerous DTV sequels and TV series, as well as Disney+ streams. As with most of those iterations, original director/voice Chris Sanders returns to lend vocals to the title alien in the new version. Rotten Tomatoes critical for the remake is currently at 74%, with some critics lukewarm on another Disney live-action re-heat after recent duds like Pinocchio and Snow White stank up the room. This is guaranteed a better response than the divisive Snow White simply because every quadrant is familiar with the more recent/politically neutral brand, but that does not automatically mean a $1B+ performance ala Inside Out 2. There’s no question Disney has a hit, but last year’s Pixar phenomenon is the big stick it will be measured against.
2. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Paramount Pictures | NEW
3-Day Weekend Range: $60M – $70M
4-Day Holiday Weekend Range: $70M – $85M
Pros
- Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, the eighth entry in the Paramount film franchise based on the 60’s/70’s TV hit, is staring down the barrel of a franchise-best debut to beat Fallout‘s $61.2M pre-pandemic opening in 2018. As usual superstar Tom Cruise is pulling out all the stops onscreen (hanging from biplanes) and off (the splashy Cannes debut) as he works the personal appearances like a pro, even stopping to chat with AMC Lincoln Center staff for over 15mins during a pre-release showing. One can hope writer/director Christopher McQuarrie learned from the mistakes of the last sequel, and if anyone can deliver the high-octane goods it’s him and Cruise. We think a $60M – $70M 3-day would be a great win for the series and theaters, and expect a $70M – $85M 4-day range to complement that, although Stitch has the advantage for Monday, May 26 since American schools will be closed.
Cons
- The last time Tom Cruise went up against Lilo & Stitch in 2002 he won out as Minority Report‘s $35.67M beat the Disney animated film by only a few decimals. It won’t be a photo finish this time, as the new and improved Lilo will roll over Cruise’s “final” Mission with extreme prejudice. This isn’t just about the Disney family juggernaut either, since 2023’s Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning was the second-lowest domestic ($172.6M) and global ($565.69M) grosser in the franchise (unadjusted), even with international pulling over 2X domestic. As older audiences file in to witness an American institution “one last time,” the final entry novelty may ware off if this crown jewel series has truly reached its exhaust point. Rotten Tomatoes is currently 79%, the lowest critical for the series since 2006’s Mission: Impossible III. One complaint pegs this new one as less stand-alone than previous adventures, featuring callbacks and fan service which may alienate casual viewers simply in it to watch Cruise do his Evel Knievel thing. Bottom line: the last time this series reached its box office nadir with the third film ($399.3M global) it bounced back better than ever with Ghost Protocol ($694.7M), and -as Top Gun: Maverick proved- Cruise ultimately knows how to stick the landing.
3. Final Destination Bloodlines
New Line Cinema | Week 2
3-Day Weekend Range: $20M – $25M
4-Day Holiday Weekend Range: $25M – $30M
Pros
- After a stellar debut of $51.6M (+0.6M from Sunday estimates), Final Destination Bloodlines reinvigorated the box office while breathing new life into a long-dormant New Line franchise. Even with the big guns coming out for memorial day (including one usurping the word “Final” on the marquee), the stellar reviews and audience response for this new Destination will keep the gravy train rolling. The next true contender for the horror dollar doesn’t arrive until June 20 when Danny Boyle’s 28 Years Later tests whether there’s still gas in the zombie tank.
Cons
- Final Destination is going to lose out on a lot of showtimes to the aforementioned #1 and #2 titles alongside Angel Studios’ new faith-based release The Last Rodeo, plus the expansion of A24’s Friendship which has been pulling stellar Per Screen Averages. That translates to a bigger tumble than Bloodlines would have had elsewhere in the calendar (i.e. Q1 or Q3 where a Final Destination movie usually lives). We think it’s going to have at least a -50% tumble, landing at $20M – $25M on the 3-day and $25M – $30M on the 4-day. The good news is neither Mission: Impossible nor Lilo & Stitch is going to keep the horror crowd that missed Frame 1 from going to Final Destination in Frame 2.
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