The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | December 13 – 15, 2024
Week 50 | December 13 – 15, 2024
Top 10 3-Day Range | Weekend 50, 2024: $70M — $100M
1. Moana 2
Walt Disney Pictures | Week 3
Weekend Range: $20M – $30M
Showtime Market Share: 22%
Pros
- Disney’s Moana 2 continues to dominate the market with a post-Thanksgiving weekend record of $51.2M added to the domestic pot, which now runneth over at $301.8M This frame there will be new animated competition in the form of Warner Bros.’ The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, an anime-style return trip into Peter Jackson’s Middle Earth. Japanese animation has been flexing in special releases this year, but this Rings entry had a very soft $2M overseas opening in 31 territories over the weekend and has very little crossover audience with the Disney kiddie crew. If anything, War of the Rohirrim may siphon off some of Kraven the Hunter‘s geek audience, especially with mixed word of mouth already trickling in for Sony’s R-rated Marvel movie.
Cons
- That post-Thanksgiving record overshadowed another story with this past frame’s reports, namely Moana 2‘s -63% drop from opening weekend. Ticket sales are still robust, but there’s no getting around the fact that this is the biggest second-weekend percentage drop for any Walt Disney Studios animated title of the 21st century, and possibly going back further. Little ink has been spilled on this drop, but it could signal a lack of repeat business moving forward for this title, which had markedly lower critical love than the original Moana.
2. Wicked
Universal Pictures | Week 4
Weekend Range: $15M – $20M
Showtime Market Share: 15%
Pros
- Universal’s Wicked continues to defy gravity as it maintained the #2 spot this past frame with $36.4M, and looks to do so again this coming weekend. Kraven the Hunter could very well open in the second position, but Wicked currently has a slight edge in our showtime marketshare tracking. Anything under a 50% drop should secure second place for Wicked this weekend, but a steeper drop will likely give Kraven the edge.
Cons
- Currently Wicked‘s domestic total stands at $325.4M, making it the 4th highest grosser of the year and edging for 3rd. However, overseas it continues to drag behind with only $135.1M in international ticket sales. Why is that? It might simply be chalked up to the fact the musical is performing best in English-speaking/singing countries like the U.K. ($47.4M) and Australia ($17.1M). It’s also done fairly well in South Korea ($10.3M), where the original Broadway show has proved popular… hence Universal re-dubbing the film for that market with the Korean stage cast.
3. Kraven the Hunter
Sony Pictures | NEW
Weekend Range: $15M – $20M
Showtime Market Share: 13%
Pros
- After several high-profile Spider-Verse misfires, Sony bet smart by putting Kraven the Hunter in the hands of a critically acclaimed director in J.C. Chandor (A Most Violent Year, Margin Call), who managed to wrangle a high-caliber cast including Aaron Taylor-Johnson as the title antihero alongside Oscar-winners Ariana DeBose and Russell Crowe. The screenwriters are also stacked, with the original Iron Man team of Art Marcum and Matt Holloway alongside “revengeamatic” expert Richard Wenk (writer of The Equalizer trilogy). While Kraven is a lesser-known Spider-Man antagonist, he goes back far enough in the comics mythology to be considered the villain for previous live-action Spidey flicks. While the bloody R-rated approach (emphasized in Sony’s online preview of the opening 8 minutes, at around 2 million views) makes this look like a more accessible superhero movie for the adult quadrant, there are still recognizably fantastical characters like Rhino in the mix.
Cons
- While some have enjoyed the new film, early social reactions from the premiere are veering mixed-to-negative, even from the typically superhero-positive geek press. Outside of the Venom films, Sony’s Spider spin-offs have left scorched earth in their path and mostly failed to connect to each other in any sort of manner that would help to build a shared universe. Complicating matters further, using a more obscure title character—along with general superhero fatigue—explains why Kraven the Hunter can potentially open in third place. We expect the title to perform similarly to Madame Web‘s $15.3M February debut on 4,013 screens, but Kraven will be dealing with a much more competitive slate in its debut.
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