The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | October 31 – November 2, 2025
Week 44 | October 31 – November 2, 2025
1. KPop Demon Hunters
Netflix | Week 2
Weekend Range: $7M – $10M
Pros
- AMC participating in this weekend’s theatrical release of KPop Demon Hunters Sing Along Event, after sitting out the last one, should help widen the footprint of a Netflix title, which exploded over a late-August weekend where it took in $19.2M for the #1 spot. The real terror this weekend is the industry bracing to wrap up the worst October since 1998. No new wide releases means we’re going to have some expansions (Bugonia to 1800 screens) and re-releases like this and Back to the Future (1900 screens) to get us through what could end up being one of the worst weekends of the year. Once again, an outlier release will help keep the seats occupied to fill the traditional Hollywood product gap.
Cons
- Leftovers rarely keep for a month, and that’s the issue with this second go-around with KPop: we’re double-dipping on a cinematic event, losing the exclusive appeal of August’s two-day rollout, since the Sing Along edition is already available on Netflix. That’s the same exclusive appeal that drove Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl to a $34M weekend, with the decision to stick to that window despite clear demand. It’s one thing to release this as a one-time-only on a slow weekend, but parents with kids already have Halloween plans lined up… and this may not have the same impact it had last month.
- AMC’s participation should help boost grosses over the weekend, but the title’s showtimes market share going into the weekend is in the single-digits, sitting squarely on the bottom half of the top ten movies in the marketplace.
Race For Second
2. Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc
Sony/Crunchyroll | Week 2
Weekend Range: $6M – $8M
Pros
- Sony and Crunchyroll’s release of anime Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc in both English dub and Japanese w/subtitles shattered industry expectations by taking in $18M (ahead of initial $17.25M Sunday estimates). This cements the new appetite for Asian animation in the mainstream US theatrical landscape, and gives Sony a much-needed boost after a year with no major tentpoles.
Cons
- A great opening weekend for Chainsaw Man will likely come with a sudden sophomore drop, as has been the case for Sony’s recent anime releases (i.e. Demon Slayer: Infinity Train‘s -75% sink in Frame 2). There’s a chance this hot new title with seasonally-appropriate gore could hold on to the top spot if KPop misses the mark, but it could just as easily find itself out of the Top 3 entirely.
3. Black Phone 2
Universal Pictures | Week 3
Weekend Range: $6M – $8M
Pros
- Universal and Blumhouse’s supernatural horror sequel Black Phone 2 did well in its second weekend, earning $12.9M for a -53% drop from Frame 1. This title finds itself as THE horror destination of the weekend, with only modest competition from Neon’s Shelby Oaks, which only earned $2.3M in its debut. We expect a decent hold this frame and a third place finish, potentially coming in second.
Cons
- The original Black Phone earned $12.2M in its second weekend, which signals that the second movie will do well for the studio (currently $81.7M globally), but there is very little growth here to build a sustainable franchise on. It would work out well creatively if there is ultimately no impetus for Black Phone 3, since the two films bookend each other nicely, but Blumhouse is hurting for new franchises now that Halloween and Paranormal Activity have run dry, and M3GAN was a non-starter.
4. Regretting You
Paramount Pictures | Week 2
Weekend Range: $6M – $8M
Pros
- Regretting You‘s $13.68M debut ultimately overtook Black Phone 2 for the #2 spot once Monday actuals came in. Although low exit polling numbers coming out of a weak opening frame have us thinking this could finish fourth, female-skewing films are rarely opening weekend events, so we could see a more modest drop than usual for this title.
Cons
- After Materialists‘ $11.3M debut, there seems to be a ceiling for female-centered dramas at the box office right now, especially with streamers flooding the zone with so much similar product. Just this month, Netflix had The Woman in Cabin 10, Hulu released The Hand That Rocks the Cradle, and Prime Video drops Hedda today.
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