The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | July 18 – 20, 2025
Week 29 | July 18 – 20, 2025
1. Superman
Warner Bros. | Week 2
Weekend Range: $45M – $55M
Showtime Marketshare: 25%
Pros
- Warner Bros. is flying high following the critical/audience/box office success of Superman‘s opening weekend, where it took in $125M (a full $3M over Sunday estimates) over the 3-Day launch. That’s better than director James Gunn’s first Guardians of the Galaxy ($94.3M opening) and the third ($118.4M), as well as a higher opening than all but two DCEU movies: Batman v Superman ($166M) and Suicide Squad ($133M), both 2016. You could argue that those two DC movies were driven by star power (Will Smith, Ben Affleck), while Superman seems to have performed solely on the strength of Gunn’s name and the IP itself, which is also extraordinary. With all this positive momentum, it would be hard to imagine too precipitous a falloff in Frame 2.
Cons
- Despite the positive momentum coming from opening weekend, we expect the latest Superman movie to drop over 50% in its second frame, following a trend that dates back to 2006’s Superman Returns. Strong mid-week sales suggest the title will finish in the top half of our range, and potentially even exceed our high-end forecast. Here’s the box office background of recent Superman films over their second weekend:
- Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) – $51.3M Frame 2 (-69%)
- Man of Steel (2013) – $41.28M Frame 2 (-65%)
- Justice League (2017) – $41M Frame 2 (-56%)
- Superman Returns (2006) – $21.8M Frame 2 (-58%)
2. Jurassic World Rebirth
Universal Pictures | Week 3
Weekend Range: $18M – $22M
Showtime Marketshare: 14%
Pros
- Jurassic World Rebirth held very well with a $40.3M second frame take, and even though the -56% drop was big, it could have been a lot bigger with the Man of Steel in the picture. At $237M domestic and an even more robust $300.25M overseas for a $537.3M WW total, the seventh Jurassic movie is in fine shape and likely on its way to finishing somewhere between $700M and $850M across the globe when all is said and done. We see the film maintaining its second place status despite another likely -50%+ fall. There’s also Marvel’s The Fantastic Four: First Steps looming in the following frame, but that is much more likely to take a bite out of Superman than the dinos since it’s another superhero movie with a bright/optimistic tone.
Cons
- Even though it’s making bank in a relatively non-competitive summer (Fantastic Four and Bad Guys 2 are the only real heavy hitters on the horizon for July/August), Jurassic World Rebirth isn’t keeping pace with the rest of the franchise. It likely won’t come close to Jurassic World: Dominion‘s $376.85M domestic take, and that was the lowest earner of the previous trilogy, and doesn’t have the juice to cross the billion mark globally. This will certainly factor into Universal’s decision to greenlight the next one, as well as whether to continue with this new storyline or treat it as a standalone.
The Battle For Third Place
3. I Know What You Did Last Summer
Sony | NEW
Weekend Range: $12M – $18M
Showtime Marketshare: 11%
Pros
- The original 1997 I Know What You Did Last Summer helped launch a generation of young heartthrobs, including Jennifer Love Hewitt, Sarah Michelle Gellar, Ryan Phillippe, Freddie Prinze Jr., and Johnny Galecki. Sony swiftly greenlit screenwriter Kevin Williamson’s adaptation of Lois Duncan’s novel after the success of his similar teen slasher Scream the year prior, and were rewarded with $72.25M domestic and $125.25M WW. It was part of a wave of Scream-inspired teen thrillers, which also included Urban Legend, Ginger Snaps, Disturbing Behavior, The Faculty, and even the Scary Movie parodies. This new one brings back the hook-wielding killer, as well as legacy characters played by Prinze Jr. and Gellar, and is currently tied with Smurfs (totally different audience) in our tracking estimates.
Cons
- The new I Know What You Did Last Summer may have name recognition on its side, but that’s not stopping other studios from putting out enticing new original horror movies over the next few weeks to compete. That includes Lionsgate’s The Home starring Pete Davidson as well as Warner Bros.’ buzzed-about mystery box thriller Weapons from Barbarian’s Zach Cregger. It also lacks the same brand enthusiasm as Scream (a film the original IKWYDLS was clearly trying to emulate), as the 1998 sequel, I Still Know What You Did Last Summer, marked the end of the franchise due to poor reviews and disappointing box office ($40M domestic/$84M worldwide). A direct-to-video sequel in 2006 titled I’ll Always Know What You Did Last Summer and a failed 2021 Amazon Prime TV series did not provide much in the way of IP cache, so this new film is counting on the long memories of horror fans who enjoyed the original nearly three decades ago. Sony already banked on nostalgia this summer with Karate Kid: Legends, which did not pay off. Critical reaction (46% on Rotten Tomatoes) will not help the case.
4. Smurfs
Paramount Pictures | NEW
Weekend Range: $15M – $20M
Showtime Marketshare: 13%
Pros
- Created by Belgian cartoonist Peyo in 1958, The Smurfs have been a global media phenomenon for decades, encompassing theme parks, video games, and a vast array of merchandise. While several animated features had already been released in Europe since the 1960’s, generational nostalgia for the successful Saturday morning animated series by Hannah-Barbara -which ran from 1981-1989- led Sony to launch a theatrical franchise which included two big budget live-action entries (The Smurfs, The Smurfs 2) and an animated film Smurfs: The Lost Village. Now Paramount is picking up the baton with a new Smurfs, which is mostly animated, though it does feature some extended live-action elements. The star-studded voice cast includes singer (and the film’s producer) Rihanna as Smurfette, James Corden as No Name Smurf, and John Goodman as Papa Smurf, and the tone should prove easily palatable to the kiddie set. The film could very well finish in third place this weekend thanks to a higher market share of domestic showtimes, up two percent above its unlikely rival, I Know What You Did Last Summer.
Cons
- Although Sony’s initial Smurfs movie hit nostalgia paydirt, you can see from the diminishing box office returns that there isn’t as much lasting affection for the characters, with little appeal outside the under-10’s and their parents…
- The Smurfs (2011) – $142.6M domestic/$563.7M global
- The Smurfs 2 (2013) – $71M domestic/$348.5M global
- Smurfs: The Lost Village (2017) – $45M/$197.57M global
Paramount will likely not see the same kind of numbers they got from similar Gen-Y properties (Sonic, Ninja Turtles, Transformers), and critical is at 21% on RT… although all the Smurfs movies have been reviewed as Rotten. That speaks more to the limited child appeal of the brand more than any deficiencies in the filmmaking. With Superman showcasing a more family-friendly tone than it has in previous iterations, we expect the Man of Steel’s latest cinematic outing to siphon off enough family tickets from Smurfs this weekend to have the latter title debut in fourth place in the market.
Share this post