The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | May 9 – 11, 2025
Week 19 | May 9 – 11, 2025
1. The New Avengers (Previously Known as Thunderbolts*)
Marvel Studios | Week 2
Weekend Range: $34M – $40M
Showtime Marketshare: 24%
Pros
- Other studios decided to steer clear of the second weekend of Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts*, now apparently re-titled as The New Avengers, paving the way for an easy win. Our prediction panel is looking towards a maximum -50% drop for this second frame, nothing like the -68% tumble ($28.17M) Captain America: Brave New World experienced during its sophomore outing earlier this year. Our north star is 2021’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, which pulled in $34.7M (-54%) during its second weekend before ultimately totaling $224.5M domestically. Like Thunderbolts*, Shang-Chi relied less on established Marvel heroes and more on big action and humor to sell itself in the marketplace.
Cons
- Unfortunately, the Sunday estimates ($76M) for the film saw a near $2M decrease for Monday actuals ($74.3M), putting this below Shang-Chi‘s $75.3M opening four years ago. As we stated on Sunday, this is still in the same ballpark as 2018’s pre-pandemic opening of Ant-Man and the Wasp ($75.8M opening/$216.6M domestic), another B-entry in the storied MCU franchise. Thunderbolts* is riding a wave of decent reviews and solid word of mouth (plus all that “New Avengers” title marketing) going into Frame 2, yet it’s painfully clear that another studio could have stolen its thunder with a wide release this weekend. While Fantastic Four: First Steps is also being given a wide berth by rival studios during its summer opening frame, that may change with future solo/non-Avengers movies as Marvel continues to show box office vulnerability.
2. Sinners
Warner Bros. | Week 4
Weekend Range: $17M – $22M
Showtime Marketshare: 14%
Pros
- We have managed to underestimate WB’s original R-rated horror smash Sinners for the past three weekends as it over-performed beyond the beyond, including $33.1M this past frame for a measly -28% drop. We’ve learned our lesson, hence our prediction for Week 4 is nearly identical to our Week 3 forecast ($16M – $22M), especially since there’s no big new wide release, plus Thunderbolts* has a different demo pull. Domestic is currently at $182.9M along with $240.4M globally, which means this title will almost certainly go above $300M WW… well into the realm of profitability for Warner Bros.
Cons
- Without question, New Line’s Final Destination Bloodlines will commandeer the Sinners audience next frame, and that will likely signal a “beginning of the end” drop-off. In terms of any threats to Sinners‘ status as the #1 horror movie of the year, there are some big guns coming with Predator: Badlands, The Conjuring: Last Rites, and even the original Weapons, but only Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 has a plausible shot at unseating Ryan Coogler’s phenomenon.
3. A Minecraft Movie
Warner Bros. | Week 6
Weekend Range: $6M – $9M
Showtime Marketshare: 11%
Pros
- A Minecraft Movie will continue to ride that chicken all the way to the bank, having posted its lowest drop yet in Frame 5 with $13.7M (-40%). It’s looking likely that the drop will be below -50% in Frame 6 as the movie continues to rack up points. The video game adaptation is about to cross the $400M mark stateside, while globally the tally stands at $875.27M. It will get another life extension next week with zero competition in the family sphere. It currently stands firmly as the #2 game movie of all-time (domestic and WW), though with no danger of unseating champ The Super Mario Bros. Movie.
Cons
- However, the block party for A Minecraft Movie officially ends during the Memorial Day frame when Disney’s live-action Lilo & Stitch will absolutely destroy. Early tracking says that cuddly alien movie is headed for a $100M+ debut, with many handicappers saying it could rule the summer the way Disney’s Inside Out 2 did last year. Still, Minecraft continues to print money in theaters and will likely have a shelf life well into June, even with rumors of a digital release next week.
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