The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | November 22 – 24, 2024
Week 47 | November 22 – 24, 2024
Top 10 3-Day Range | Weekend 47, 2024: $210M — $260M
1. Wicked
Universal Pictures | NEW
Weekend Range: $120M – $140M
Showtime Market Share: 29%
Pros
- “Popular”? Get ready to watch Universal Pictures’ Wicked defy gravity as the Broadway-by-way of L. Frank Baum adaptation (with a little Harry Potter-ness thrown in) is set to soar on its broom to the top spot this week with a massive $100M+ debut. Superstars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande are lighting up the promo circuit, and unlike 2019’s Cats cat-astrophe, Wicked is being greeted with resounding critical praise at 92% Certified Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s sure to become a go-to family-driven theatrical experience over the holidays, with sing-along screenings already planned to bring in repeat business come Christmas. The Stephen Schwartz/Winnie Holzman musical has been touring since launching in New York in 2003 and helped make Idina Menzel and Kristin Chenoweth household names (they both have cameos in the movie). Speaking of Menzel, if you want the best comp for how Wicked could ultimately perform worldwide, simply look to Disney’s Frozen ($1.27B).
- Brand activations have broken through theater lobbies and directly into the culture at large. From themed Starbucks drinks to Betty Crocker cupcake mixes, Wicked is seeing a marketing blitz comparable to 2023’s Barbie. That cultural resonance is crucial for tentpoles of this variety and can help carry the awareness of the film well into the holidays and extend what is already expected to be a deep theatrical run.
Cons
- This year has been a mixed bag for musicals, with the Broadway-tested Mean Girls scoring a modest $104.4M globally on an equally modest $36M budget, though it couldn’t crack the century mark stateside. Christmas 2023 holdover Wonka managed to stay in the domestic Top 5 for nine weeks before logging a scrumdiddlyumptious $218.4M domestic/$628.9M global. Then there was the belly flop of Joker: Folie à Deux, where the musical elements became a liability rather than a selling point. Unlike the DC Comics brand, the 1939 Judy Garland The Wizard of Oz is an established musical classic, so Wicked telling a prequel story in this same fashion is brand-friendly (ala Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory). Musicals are always hard to pin down at the box office; for every The Greatest Showman ($428.7M WW), there’s a West Side Story ($74.8M WW), and for every The Little Mermaid ($569.6M WW), there’s a Wish ($240.4M WW). Even Wicked director Jon M. Chu has experienced his share of struggles in the genre with misfires like In the Heights ($43.6M WW).
- If Wicked has any built-in liability, it’s the fact that it’s only half a story, with Wicked Part Two scheduled for this same slot in 2025. The fact that it’s not being billed as “Part One” is smart, as that type of branding has proved damaging of late (see Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One), with successful franchise films like Avengers: Infinity War and Dune opting to present as standalone’s… even when they’re not. Will this lead to negative word of mouth for audiences not clued into the serial nature of Wicked, or will it prime the pump for an even bigger bonanza a year from now? The real answer to that may have to wait for the second frame, when the film will begin competing for screens and showtimes with Moana 2.
2. Gladiator II
Paramount Pictures | NEW
Weekend Range: $65M – $75M
Showtime Market Share: 20%
Pros
- Paramount’s long-gestating followup Gladiator II is riding into the weekend on a wave of momentum after posting an impressive $87M overseas debut this past frame. The trailers promise an epic of big action and massive scale, shot in the same sun-baked Malta locales as the original. Critical consensus so far is mixed-to-positive at 75% on RT, with many praising the film’s ambition. While it may not have the four-quadrant appeal of Wicked, Gladiator II will still bring in a diverse audience of younger action fans and older folks with fond memories of the 2000 Best Picture winner. Like Ridley Scott’s Hannibal, this entry feels less like Oscar bait and more like an exploitation movie, but that fun factor is exactly what appeals to the sword-and-sandal nature of this studio tentpole. We’re looking for this one to double the first film’s $34.8M debut from 24 years ago.
Cons
- The original Gladiator did not exactly lend itself to easy franchising, although it did set off a decade-long sword-and-sandal revival (Troy, 300, etc). Sequels without the original lead tend to struggle in the market, although this past summer’s Twisters ($369.7M global) proved it’s not impossible to provide a long-delayed sequel with a new core cast. Big names like Denzel Washington and Pedro Pascal complement fresh face Paul Mescal (TV’s Normal People), while the studio hopes that audiences patronized the original Gladiator for the ancient Roman spectacle over the magnetism of Crowe. Having master filmmaker Ridley Scott orchestrating the gory entertainment again is an asset, as long as we decide to ignore his return to the Alien franchise with Prometheus and Alien: Covenant). The R-rating may also be a detriment, although it could be perfect counter-programming to the female-oriented/family friendly combo of Wicked/Moana 2.
3. Red One
Amazon/MGM | Week 2
Weekend Range: $13M – $18M
Showtime Market Share: 10%
Pros
- Despite getting a critical spanking, audiences seemed to enjoy Red One with an RT audience score of 88% and an “A-” CinemaScore. It’s also a rare four-quadrant movie to actually spread its age percentages pretty evenly across all four quadrants, signifying universal appeal. Hopefully, word-of-mouth will give this rocky star vehicle some longevity into the holiday season, given the heavy competition. We’re looking at a drop in the 40%-60% range, mostly due to the increased competition from this weekend’s new releases.
Cons
- By the time Monday actuals came through, the weekend tally for this one deflated from $34M to $32.1M. While still slightly above high-end forecasts, this marks Dwayne Johnson’s lowest opening since Skyscraper in 2018. That sluggish debut is compounded by the huge price tag for Red One, reportedly well north of $250M. The similarly high-priced Rock-led Black Adam launched to more than twice this number in 2022 yet still wound up losing steam at the box office, while 2021’s Jungle Book had a simultaneous theatrical/Disney+ Premier Access debut to off-set COVID-era attendance ($220.9M global cume). Amazon is boasting that Red One will be a downstream asset for them, suggesting the film could potentially hit its Amazon Prime service next month.
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