Long Range Forecast — October 3, 2025
Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl | AMC
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $40M – $50M
Announced by AMC Theatres last Friday, Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl is a surprise addition to the fall calendar from the exhibitor’s distribution arm, which released Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour during a sleepy October 2023. Not exactly a concert film, not exact a documentary, The Official Release Party of a Showgirl isn’t expected to open anywhere near The Eras Tour‘s $93.2M, but its predicted $40M – $50M should still be enough to deliver a #1 at the box office—where it opens against A24’s The Smashing Machine—all the same.
Screenings start simultaneously on the afternoon of October the 3rd (noon PT, 3PM ET) and run for only three days, with the title’s scant 89-minute runtime leaving room for an abundance of showtimes. The limited nature of the theatrical run of The Official Release Party of a Showgirl, which includes an exclusive music video premiere, behind-the-scenes footage, lyric videos, and personal reflections from Swift on her upcoming album, should serve to stoke FOMO among Swift’s fanbase, even if post-Eras Tour the presence of Swift-the-musician on screen (as opposed to Swift-the-actress, in 2019’s Cats and 2022’s Amsterdam) isn’t as novel as it once was.
Ticket pre-sales are already looking promising across several key European markets, with Johnny Carr, head of event cinema and distribution at Vue, citing the “incredible response” to “what is expected to be the biggest music event of the year.” Per Carr, “day one presales have outpaced day one presales for The Eras Tour across our European markets [Vue operates in Denmark, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, Netherlands, Poland, and U.K./Ireland] with admissions ahead by 80% (40% in the U.K.).”
Tracking Updates [as of September 26]
| Release Date | Title | Predicted Opening Range | Distributor |
| 9/26 | The Strangers: Chapter 2 | $6M – $10M | Lionsgate |
| 9/26 | One Battle After Another | $18M – $23M | Warner Bros. |
| 9/26 | Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie | $15M – $20M | Universal |
| 10/3 | The Smashing Machine | $10M – $15M | A24 |
| 10/3 | Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl | $40M – $50M | AMC Theatres Distribution / Variance Film |
| 10/10 | Roofman | $8M – $12M | Paramount |
| 10/10 | Soul on Fire | $4M – $8M | Sony / Affirm |
| 10/10 | Tron: Ares | $40M – $50M | Disney |
| 10/17 | Black Phone 2 | $20M – $28M | Universal |
| 10/17 | Good Fortune | $12M – $18M | Lionsgate |
| 10/17 | Truth & Treason | $2M – $4M | Angel Studios |
| 10/24 | Regretting You | $15M – $25M | Paramount |
| 10/24 | Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc | $6M – $10M | Sony / Crunchyroll |
| 10/24 | Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nothing | $15M – $25M | Disney |
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