Facebook Watch: Two in a Row for ‘Apocalypse’

Monday Morning Update: X-Men: Apocalypse repeated atop the leaderboard this week for the second week running as release buzz continues to escalate. I have been mildly worried about the film’s lack of buzz compared to its Marvel Cinematic Universe counterparts (along with fellow Fox alum Deadpool) but it seems as though it was largely for nothing because a 300k like increase for a well established franchise such as this with over 13 million likes is a very strong sign of growth potential.

After being a late entry to Facebook with its official page only popping up a few short weeks ago Bad Moms exploded this past week with its first trailer. The best comparison I can think of is How To Be Single and that didn’t even have 173,698 likes on the day of its release after being an active page for months. Bad Moms just announced itself as a breakout contender for the Summer.

Now You See Me 2 continued to be in the spotlight as it had a further 61,458 likes. The first film had 218,428 likes on its release day, while this sequel has already amassed over 300,000 new likes in 2016 alone. The first film was a moderate success domestically with a $29 million opening and $118 million total gross against a reported $75 million budget, but it soared internationally where it brought in a further $234 million. Part 2 will be looking to cash in on its worldwide appeal once more and these buzz numbers definitely support a lucrative bow.

Angry Birds has a good shot at being over 900,000 likes before its release. On one hand that is very close to the 2016 record-holder for animated films so far Jungle Book (987,999 likes on release day) while on the other hand the app that the film its based on itself has over 25,000,000 likes. If I look over the aisle to Warcraft that boats a 6 million likes for the game to 1.3 million likes for the movie ratio which shows a much higher engagement percentage with the core fanbase. The film of course appeals to not just its app users but family audiences in general so that’s not necessarily a bad sign though it does hint to me that perhaps its not going to break outside of this core family audience which will cap its opening potential. We are currently predicting a $43 million opening which will be just shy of the current video game adaptation opening weekend record-holder: Tomb Raider and its $47.74 million from way back in 2001.

Speaking of video game adaptations, Warcraft made it into the top 5 for the second week in a row as it padded its total to just shy of 1.3 million likes. Like Angry Birds much of its potential will come down to just how far outside of its fanboy audience the film can go. One can’t help but wonder why Blizzard wouldn’t have scheduled the film’s release to have been closer to its highly anticipated 6th expansion for the game entitled Legion which drops August 30th, similar to what Prince Of Persia did back in 2010. Warcraft players skew male and older than most games (likely 25+ though the exact number is not known), so social media numbers are understandably muted and not necessarily indicative of it under-performing. We are currently predicting a $35 million start.

Facebook Top 10 Movies by Like Increase for the last week Ending Sunday May 8th

Rank Release Movie Likes Change % Change
1 05/27/16 X-Men: Apocalypse 13,947,213 313,771 2.30%
2 07/29/16 Bad Moms 186,240 173,698 1384.93%
3 06/10/16 Now You See Me 2 2,071,910 61,458 3.06%
4 05/20/16 The Angry Birds Movie 840,743 54,592 6.94%
5 06/10/16 Warcraft 1,295,292 41,414 3.30%
6 05/20/16 Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising 1,507,740 42,533 2.90%
7 06/03/16 Me Before You 347,608 38,010 12.28%
8 06/24/16 The Shallows 218,009 40,742 22.98%
9 08/05/16 Suicide Squad 2,476,223 29,483 1.20%
10 06/10/16 The Conjuring 2 3,492,314 22,794 0.66%
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