This week’s report focuses on two of the three major studio releases currently slated for November 15. We’ll offer up forecasts for Warner Bros.’ The Good Liar at a later date, but for now, here’s our initial outlook for the Sony and Fox openers.
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 35 million
- Kristen Stewart and Naomi Scott — the latter off her breakout role in Aladdin — provide notable leads in this latest reboot of the 1970s television series. Names like those and that of director Elizabeth Banks (Pitch Perfect franchise) will hopefully bolster appeal to a young female audience not familiar with the series or the feature films of the early aughts.
- The recently released single “Don’t Call Me Angel” from Ariana Grande, Lana Del Rey, and Miley Cyrus could provide marketing synergy over the next eight weeks after it scored very positive results across social media.
- The demand for more high profile / tentpole films led by empowering female characters could help this stand out during the holidays with multiple generations of women if reviews and audience reception are strong enough.
- While the first two feature films were domestic hits in 2000 and 2003, earning $125.3 million and $100.8 million respectively, it remains to be seen how in-demand another reboot of the property is among young and adult female audiences. Much of that audience will have a fair number of choices in November between Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Last Christmas, and Frozen II. Initial comparisons include Sony’s own Men In Black International, which similarly re-casted its franchise in an effort to reignite the brand with a youthful slant.
- Although very preliminary, early sales trends at various ticketing outlets appear soft. There’s still plenty of time for that to change, but marketing may have some work ahead in terms of converting film awareness into interest as the next eight weeks progress.
Ford v Ferrari
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 35 million
- The combined star appeal of Matt Damon and Christian Bale is a major driver behind this biopic, as is the success of director James Mangold (Logan, 3:10 to Yuma, Walk the Line). The turnout by gearheads and potential appeal to both men and women underscores a potentially diverse audience.
- Counter-programming against holiday blockbuster fare is a very encouraging play, particularly given the success of Bohemian Rhapsody in a similar corridor last year. Trailer reactions and early social trends are indicative of a leggy crowd-pleaser in the making.
- It’s tough to rule out some crossover for the target adult male audience between this and Terminator: Dark Fate, opening one week later, should that sci-fi pic generate positive reception.
- Appeal to adult female audiences could be hindered upfront if Charlie’s Angels does end up taking off with that demographic.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day (FSS) Opening Range||3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total Forecast||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|9/27/2019||Abominable||$20,000,000 – $25,000,000||$22,500,000||$80,000,000||4,100||Universal|
|10/4/2019||Joker||$85,000,000 – $105,000,000||$103,000,000||$210,000,000||4,200||Warner Bros.|
|10/11/2019||The Addams Family (2019)||$16,000,000 – $21,000,000||$18,000,000||$70,000,000||United Artists Releasing|
|10/11/2019||The Current War (Expansion)||n/a||n/a||n/a||101 Studios|
|10/11/2019||Gemini Man||$26,000,000 – $31,000,000||$28,000,000||4%||$85,000,000||Paramount|
|10/11/2019||Jexi||$7,000,000 – $12,000,000||$8,000,000||-11%||$25,000,000||-14%||Lionsgate / CBS Films / Entertainment One|
|10/18/2019||Maleficent: Mistress of Evil||$30,000,000 – $50,000,000||$37,000,000||$110,000,000||Disney|
|10/18/2019||Zombieland 2: Double Tap||$24,000,000 – $34,000,000||$30,000,000||$77,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|10/25/2019||Black and Blue||$10,000,000 – $15,000,000||$12,000,000||$35,000,000||Sony / Screen Gems|
|10/25/2019||The Last Full Measure||n/a||n/a||n/a||Roadside Attractions|
|11/1/2019||Arctic Dogs||$5,000,000 – $10,000,000||$7,000,000||$24,500,000||Entertainment Studios|
|11/1/2019||Motherless Brooklyn||$7,000,000 – $12,000,000||n/a||n/a||Warner Bros.|
|11/1/2019||Terminator: Dark Fate||$35,000,000 – $45,000,000||$38,000,000||$85,000,000||Paramount|
|11/8/2019||Doctor Sleep||$20,000,000 – $30,000,000||$25,000,000||$92,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|11/8/2019||Last Christmas||$12,000,000 – $17,000,000||$15,000,000||$80,000,000||Universal|
|11/8/2019||Midway||$10,000,000 – $15,000,000||$13,000,000||$47,000,000||Lionsgate|
|11/8/2019||Playing with Fire||$7,000,000 – $12,000,000||$8,000,000||$33,000,000||Paramount|
|11/15/2019||All Rise||n/a||n/a||n/a||Entertainment Studios|
|11/15/2019||Charlie’s Angels (2019)||$25,000,000 – $35,000,000||$29,000,000||NEW||$78,000,000||NEW||Sony / Columbia|
|11/15/2019||The Good Liar||$7,000,000 – $12,000,000||n/a||n/a||Warner Bros.|
|11/15/2019||Ford v. Ferrari||$25,000,000 – $35,000,000||$32,000,000||NEW||$115,000,000||NEW||Fox|
Alex Edghill & Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report