Long Range Forecast — May 29, 2026
Backrooms | A24
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $20M – $30M
Chiwetel Ejiofor and Renate Reinsve co-star in Backrooms, an ambient horror outing from director Kane Parsons, whose viral series of YouTube shorts of the same name helped to popularize a particular subgenre of internet horror focused on liminal spaces and creepy vibes. The slow pace of this one might keep the gore aficionados away, but don’t count out Gen Z moviegoers eager to thrill to one of their favorite creepypastas (i.e. internet-born horror stories and urban legends) in a communal setting. Earlier this year, YouTube Markiplier self-distributed his supernatural horror film Iron Lung to the tune of $40.8M domestically, $17.8 of that from opening weekend. Later this month, Focus Features release Obsession (currently tracking at a $7M – $10M opening) will give us an additional data point about the box office potential of digital-native horror creators transitioning to the big screen.
While the origin of Backrooms is thoroughly Gen-Z, the presence of co-leads Ejiofor and Reinsve should help expand awareness of the film past the terminally online set. A24, too, has evolved into a brand trusted to deliver compelling horror oddities, among them 2023’s Talk to Me ($10.4M domestic opening), 2024’s Heretic ($10.8M), 2018’s Hereditary ($13.5M), and 2019’s Midsommar ($6.5M).
The Breadwinner | Sony
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $8M – $12M
Comedian Nate Bargatze co-writes and co-stars in this family-friendly comedy about a husband and father (Bargatze) who becomes the stay-at-home parent to his three daughters after his wife (Mandy Moore) Shark Tank deal and ramps up her business. A solid ensemble cast—including Will Forte, Colin Jost, and Kumail Nanjiani—should provide a box office boost, as should the relative absence of non-animated family titles on the slate throughout the summer.
That said, the “standup comedian-to-quasi-autobiographical-dramedy” pipeline can have a difficult time connecting to audiences on a larger scale. Films based on the comic stylings of Jo Koy (Easter Sunday), Bert Kreischer (The Machine), and Sebastian Maniscalco (About My Father)—the latter two released in the final weekend of May, like The Breadwinner—all failed to crack the $10M barrier on their debut weekends, opening to $5.4M, $5M, and $4.3M, respectively.
Tracking Update — May 22, 2026
I Love Boosters | NEON
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $5M – $7M
Screen count will be key to how I Love Boosters performs over its opening weekend. The Mandalorian & Grogu will take up most of the screens over the Memorial Day weekend frame, leaving Boosters to contend with fellow counter-programmers like Obsession and Is God Is, not to mention holdover titans like The Devil Wears Prada 2 and Michael.
The potential is there for Boosters if it can carve out a large enough footprint. Star Keke Palmer delivered an $11M opening weekend with 2025’s One of Them Days, a title that delivered a near-5x multiple to top out at $50M domestic. The rest of Boosters‘ ensemble, anchored by Lakeith Stanfield, Demi Moore, and Don Cheadle, should help add visibility in the marketing push towards opening weekend.
The engine behind the film is its writer-director, Boots Riley, who has become a household name among cinephiles since his explosive breakout debut in 2018’s Sorry to Bother You. Call it deja vu: that film elbowed its way to the table, opening in platform release against a Disney juggernaut (Ant-Man and the Wasp) over a holiday weekend. Positive word-of-mouth helped drive the title to a limited expansion, helping keep it in theaters for more than four months in a domestic run that totaled more than $17M. We anticipate a similar performance from Boosters, with the opening weekend only telling a small fraction of the story. Our forecasting panel is currently tracking Boosters to open between $5M to $7M, with the potential to reach up to $10M if Neon can secure a broad enough footprint in a crowded field.
Tracking Updates [As Of 5/8/26]
| Release Date | Title | Predicted Opening Range | Distributor |
| 5/8 | The Sheep Detectives | $10M – $15M | Amazon MGM |
| 5/8 | Billie Eilish: Hit Me Hard and Soft—The Tour | $8M – $12M | Paramount |
| 5/8 | Mortal Kombat II | $40M – $45M | Warner Bros. |
| 5/15 | In the Grey | $4M – $7M | Black Bear |
| 5/15 | Is God Is | $3M – $5M | Amazon MGM |
| 5/15 | Obsession | $7M – $10M | Focus Features |
| 5/22 | Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu | $80M – $90M | Disney/Lucasfilm |
| 5/22 | I Love Boosters | $5M – $7M | NEON |
| 5/22 | Corporate Retreat | $1M – $2M | Western Film Services |
| 5/22 | Passenger | $7M – $10M | Paramount |
| 5/29 | Backrooms | $20M – $30M | A24 |
| 5/29 | The Breadwinner | $8M – $12M | Sony |
| 5/29 | Pressure | $4M – $6M | Focus Features |
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