As Marvel’s biggest film yet continues to dominate the market, this weekend will welcome a few more new releases aiming for a variety of audiences. Will the headlining opener be able to unseat the reigning weekend champ, though?
PROS:
- Avengers: Endgame is likely to begin stabilizing its legs after the typical second weekend drop-off common to mega-openers. Infinity War itself eased 46 percent in its third frame one year ago, which was also Mother’s Day weekend.
- Detective Pikachu should benefit from both its multi-generation appeal and the fact that it provides a shorter, PG-rated, family-friendly option for parents with kids too young for the Marvel epic. Final pre-release tracking positions interest comparable to recent films like Shazam!, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, and The LEGO Batman Movie.
- The Hustle is driven by stars Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson, both of whom are coming off strong female-driven franchise successes (Ocean’s 8 and the Pitch Perfect series, respectively). Pre-release tracking suggests the film is generating comparable interest as Life of the Party, which also opened on Mother’s Day weekend last year.
- Poms will cater to older female moviegoers, a smart play in a market largely absent of films aiming for that audience. Again, Mother’s Day should provide a boost on Sunday.
- Tolkien, opening in semi-wide release, could appeal to die-hard fans of the author and The Lord of the Rings / Hobbit films. It has a fair shot to be Fox Searchlight’s best opener since 2016’s The Birth of a Nation ($7 million from 2,105 theaters) and 2015’s The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel ($8.5 million from 1,573 theaters).
CONS:
- The biggest challenges for Pikachu appear to be its positioning in the shadow of Endgame — which will still be going strong and could top Avatar ($68.5 million) and/or Black Panther ($66.3 million) for the second or third highest third weekend ever.
- Additionally, tracking for Pikachu hasn’t quite excelled to the levels once expected in long range reports, and critics’ reviews — while mostly positive and indicative of potential staying power — haven’t struck at the high level typically conducive to a breakout on the optimistic end of forecasts.
- The Hustle and Poms each lack critics’ reviews as of this report, and could face some crossover competition from the well-received Long Shot.
- Tolkien is, unfortunately, receiving lukewarm reviews, while tracking for the semi-wide release has proven challenging given the limited scope of its marketing and distribution.
Weekend Ranges
- Avengers: Endgame ($67 – 77 million)
- Detective Pikachu ($50 – 75 million)
- The Hustle ($13 – 18 million)
- Poms ($5 – 10 million)
- Tolkien ($3 – 8 million)
Top 10 vs. Last Year
Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will increase approximately 41 – 46 percent from the same weekend last year. That comparable Mother’s Day frame was led by Infinity War‘s $62.1 million, ahead of Life of the Party‘s $17.9 million and Breaking In‘ $17.6 million debuts. The top ten that weekend generated $126.7 million.
Weekend Forecast
| Film | Distributor | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 12 | % Change from Last Wknd |
| Avengers: Endgame | Disney / Marvel | $70,700,000 | $731,400,000 | -52% |
| Pokémon: Detective Pikachu | Warner Bros. | $56,000,000 | $56,000,000 | NEW |
| The Hustle | United Artists Releasing | $15,000,000 | $15,000,000 | NEW |
| Poms | STX | $8,400,000 | $8,400,000 | NEW |
| Long Shot | Lionsgate / Summit | $6,600,000 | $20,000,000 | -32% |
| The Intruder | Sony / Screen Gems | $6,000,000 | $20,000,000 | -45% |
| Tolkien | Fox Searchlight | $5,500,000 | $5,500,000 | NEW |
| Uglydolls | STX | $4,200,000 | $14,700,000 | -51% |
| Captain Marvel | Disney / Marvel | $3,000,000 | $424,900,000 | -31% |
| Breakthrough | Fox | $2,900,000 | $37,500,000 | -26% |
Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.
Contact us for information about subscribing to Boxoffice’s suite of forecasting and data services.
Share this post