Weekend Forecast: Will Avengers: Endgame Best Star Wars: The Force Awakens‘ Second Weekend Domestic Record?

Following a truly historic weekend at the global box office, which included new domestic, international, and global opening records, we now turn our attention to Avengers: Endgame‘s upcoming sophomore weekend.

The Marvel juggernaut has since continued to leap past a number of films on various all-time charts, demolishing previous benchmarks in its wake. But will the film be able to exceed Star Wars: The Force Awakens‘ second weekend domestic record of $149.2 million?

Current models suggest that’s a very achievable goal, which shouldn’t be surprising given that Endgame ($357.1 million) earned 44 percent more on opening weekend than Force Awakens ($248 million). However, it’s important to keep in mind the latter’s arguably and relatively deflated opening given its proximity to Christmas (which landed on the Friday of its second frame). That — combined with strong word of mouth and similar once-in-a-generation, must-see buzz — helped result in a soft 39.8 percent weekend-to-weekend drop for Force.

That kind of drop shouldn’t be expected for Endgame, but the lead it earned over the weekend was significant enough that it the Avengers semi-finale doesn’t need to hold as well in order to have a shot at taking away another record from the Star Wars blockbuster.

Thus far, Endgame is closely following the daily box office patterns of last year’s Avengers: Infinity War. Tuesday’s $33.1 million represented 9.3 percent in relation to opening weekend numbers, nearly identical to Infinity War‘s 9.1 percent (it earned $23.43 million on its first Tuesday).

If that pattern continues to play out in the days ahead, a second weekend around $162 million could come to fruition. With Fandango reporting that sales for repeat viewings are up 85 percent from those of Infinity War at the same point last year, it’s certainly possible for that second weekend trajectory to reach higher.

That being said, it’s also worth noting the slightly more front-loaded weekend Endgame had versus Infinity. The latter drew 41.3 percent of its weekend earnings on Thursday night and Friday, while Endgame generated 44.1 percent of its first frame between 5pm Thursday and the end of Friday.

Given the strong reception ofEndgame, and minimal competition from this weekend’s openers, a trajectory similar to that of the first Avengers film in 2012 might optimistically be on the table. That film dropped just 50.3 percent from its then-record $207.4 million first weekend, although its less of an apples-to-apples comparison since that film didn’t have the advantage of pre-midnight earnings on Thursday like Endgame did. Based on our head-to-head models that account for this key difference, a second weekend close to the range of $165 – $170 million is possible, but very optimistic.

By the weekend’s end, we expect Endgame will have eclipsed the original Avengers‘ $623.4 million domestic final gross to be in 7th place on the all-time chart.

Speaking of new releases this weekend, a trio of titles will hope to emerge as counter-programmers in the shadow of the MCU behemoth.

The Intruder has shown early signs of a solid performance with tracking close to that of last year’s Breaking In, although the latter opened over Mother’s Day weekend and one extra week removed from an Avengers debut.

Long Shot will hope to attract date night crowds with star power from Charlize Theron and Seth Rogen, plus strong pre-release reviews and screening buzz. Even though a modest opening is likely, staying power will be the name of the game as the rom-com promises to be a crowd-pleaser through Memorial Day.

Meanwhile, Uglydolls is aiming for the kiddie crowd too young for the three-hour, PG-13 Avengers epic. A host of star names counted among its ensemble voice cast could aid appeal to parents, but the looming promise of next week’s buzzy, PG-rated Detective Pikachu could negate some of that possible advantage. Mixed reviews may be a factor as well.

Weekend Ranges

Avengers: Endgame ($145 – $165 million)
The Intruder ($9 – 14 million)
Long Shot ($8 – 13 million)
Uglydolls ($7 – 15 million)

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will increase between 29 and 37 percent from the same weekend last year, which generated $159 million across the top ten. That frame was led by Infinity War‘s $114.8 million sophomore performance, leading openers Overboard ($14.7 million) and Tully ($3.3 million).

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 5 % Change from Last Wknd
Avengers: Endgame Disney / Marvel $152,600,000 $623,750,000 -57%
Uglydolls STX $11,000,000 $11,000,000 NEW
The Intruder Sony / Screen Gems $10,800,000 $10,800,000 NEW
Long Shot Lionsgate / Summit $10,000,000 $10,000,000 NEW
Captain Marvel Disney / Marvel $5,300,000 $421,800,000 -36%
The Curse of La Llorona Warner Bros. / New Line $4,600,000 $49,300,000 -43%
Breakthrough Fox $4,200,000 $33,500,000 -38%
Shazam! Warner Bros. $3,400,000 $136,300,000 -39%
Dumbo Disney $2,000,000 $110,300,000 -43%
Little Universal $1,900,000 $39,000,000 -45%

Check out our interview with Avengers: Endgame co-director Joe Russo.

Alex Edghill contributed to this report

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

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