The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | March 7 – 9, 2025
Week 10 | March 7 – 9, 2025
1. Mickey 17
Warner Bros. | NEW
Weekend Range: $12M – $16M
Showtime Market Share: 16%
Pros
- Warner Bros.’ sci-fi satire Mickey 17 (not the 16th sequel to Warren Beatty’s Mickey One) is the first movie from South Korean director Bong Joon-ho since his Parasite Oscar triumph. It features Batman himself Robert Pattinson alongside a stacked supporting cast (Naomi Ackie, Steven Yeun, Toni Collette, Mark Ruffalo) in a fun sci-fi concept based on Edward Ashton’s book where the title character’s body is regenerated over and over to aid a futuristic company’s most dangerous assignments. Reviews since the film’s debut at the Berlin Film Festival last month are good at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes, although Metacritic is a lower 75%. Mickey 17‘s $9M 4-Day take in Korea over the Independence Day Movement holiday marked Pattinson’s biggest opening in the region, ahead of The Batman. Coming out during a March bereft of major league product gives this movie every advantage, although WB’s boondoggle Furiosa proved last Memorial Day that it sometimes doesn’t matter how big the movie or empty the weekend is.
Cons
- This is Bong Joon-ho’s first English-language movie to ever get a wide theatrical bow after 2013’s Snowpiercer earned $4.56M in a limited run and 2017’s Okja went to Netflix (with a very limited theatrical run), so it’s a bit of a mystery how his sensibilities will play in our wide-release market. While we’re always rooting for original ideas at the multiplex, pre-sales and critical reactions suggest Mickey 17 will have limited appeal, selling more like a specialty release despite its major studio tentpole price tag north of $100M. Our initial projections had this coming in at $15M-$20M, a benchmark still in range if word-of-mouth and walk-up business pick up when we enter the weekend. Luckily, the movie is opening in 66 territories overseas alongside the US, which will word-of-mouth-proof the global launch while being a boon in future frames if audiences react positively.
- Mickey 17 finished shooting at the end of 2022, but has been held up multiple times due to the strike and rumors of in-fighting over the director’s cut, although the filmmaker recently affirmed the release version is his. Pattinson previously went to space for another indie darling, Claire Denis, in 2018’s High Life which made $2.76M total worldwide. The big difference? High Life was never meant to carry the weight of a wide studio release. In a post-Madea world, seeing an actor playing multiple roles in a given scene has entirely lost its novelty (see Theo James in The Monkey). Also, didn’t we already see this movie in 2009 when it was called Moon, with Sam Rockwell playing multiple disposable astronaut clones? Mark Ruffalo’s politician character is also said to be pointed and polarizing.
2. Captain America: Brave New World
Marvel Studios | Week 4
Weekend Range: $7M – $8M
Showtime Market Share: 11%
Pros
- With a third frame take of $14.85M (down from Sunday’s $15M estimate), Captain America: Brave New World defied lower estimates to hold up moderately well (-47%) and maintain the #1 slot. Our prediction panel is expecting another drop in the same range, but since the closest competition is Mickey 17 (a movie very likely to underperform) there exists a potential multiverse timeline where Cap takes a fourth #1. These are not the kinds of numbers Disney wanted for a Captain America movie, but holding the top spot still looks good on the books. This version of Cap may not be one of Marvel’s blue chip heroes at the moment, but there’s still a lot of love for Anthony Mackie as well as a shot at defining Sam Wilson in forthcoming Avengers movies. Chris Evans’ first film as the character in 2011 was the second-lowest grossing entry in Phase 1, but his popularity is now only rivaled by Robert Downey Jr.
Cons
- We are currently over three weeks post Brave New World‘s release and it has only made $164.57M domestic. Here’s an interesting fact: Of their 35 theatrical releases, Marvel Studios has had 11 movies make more than $164M in their opening 3-Day weekend. Does this signal temporary superhero fatigue, or are the gold rush days for Marvel over?
3. Last Breath
Focus Features | Week 2
Weekend Range: $3M – $4M
Showtime Market Share: 9%
Pros
- With an opening weekend gross of $7.85M, Focus Features’ Last Breath performed just a little under our low-end forecast. Still, for the real-life survival genre it managed to save some face for Universal’s boutique label, especially when most of the movies of this ilk go direct to streaming now. With 53% of ticket buyers in the age 35+ column, this was the rare drama that managed to lure the “olds” off their couch for some solid thrills. The 4 1/2 stars/61% definite recommend on PostTrak means decent word-of-mouth going into Frame 2 with very little competition for this audience from newcomer In the Lost Lands.
Cons
- Let’s face it, this one had “winter programmer” written all over it, the kind of movie other studios might typically dump into 700 theaters for a week. Instead, Focus gave Last Breath the red carpet treatment on 3,000+ screens despite recycled stars (Woody Harrelson, Simu Liu) and a fairly straightforward submarine rescue story that had already been covered in a 2019 doc. With $8.4M banked so far, this title will probably squeeze less than $20M domestically before departing for the more tranquil waters of PVOD. Hopefully the theatrical bow will pay off as solid advertising for the Digital at-home buys.
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